Why the missile shortage matters

ATACMS and PrSM are considered among the US military’s most important long-range strike capabilities. They enable forces to hit targets accurately from safer distances and have also played a significant role in the Ukraine war, where US-supplied ATACMS were used by Ukrainian forces to strike targets inside Russia.

The PrSM is the next-generation replacement for the ATACMS, offering greater range and improved capabilities. Defence analysts reportedly told Reuters that these weapons would also be crucial in the event of a conflict with China.

None of the sources disclosed the exact number of missiles remaining in the US inventory, the report mentioned.

Concerns over prolonged conflict

US President Donald Trump launched the war with Iran alongside Israel in February, expecting it to be brief. However, as the conflict has continued for five months, officials familiar with the matter have expressed concern that shrinking missile inventories could weaken the US military’s ability to deter adversaries such as Russia and China.

Reuters cited a fourth source who said while the US Central Command had nearly exhausted the land-based missiles available at the start of the war, it has been replenishing supplies using stockpiles from other military commands around the world.

White House and Pentagon defend US military capabilities

According to the report, the White House shared a statement from Trump asserting that the United States still possesses more munitions than any other country.

“Our defense companies are, at this moment, making more munitions than they have ever made before, in addition to expanding their plants and equipment at record levels,” Trump reportedly said in the statement.

Analysts acknowledged that production of several categories of munitions, including artillery shells and missiles, has increased significantly. However, they cautioned that manufacturing levels may still be insufficient to sustain a prolonged war.

The Reuters report also mentioned that neither Lockheed Martin, which manufactures the ATACMS, PrSM and the THAAD missile defence system, nor Raytheon, which produces Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot missile interceptors, responded to their queries.

However, the report mentioned that Raytheon, a unit of RTX, has reached a tentative multi-year agreement with the Pentagon to increase production of Tomahawk missiles as part of broader efforts to rebuild US weapons stockpiles.

Meanwhile, the report also quoted Pentagon chief spokesperson Sean Parnell, who said the US military remains fully capable of carrying out operations worldwide. “America’s military is the most powerful in the world and has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President’s choosing. We have executed multiple successful operations across combatant commands while ensuring the US military possesses a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests,” he reportedly said.

Internal discussions over dwindling stockpiles

According to Reuters, data on declining missile inventories has circulated within the federal government over the past week, triggering discussions inside the Trump administration over how long the US can continue military operations against Iran without reducing stockpiles to levels that could affect responses to other global crises.

Reuters further cited a source who said that the heavy use of ATACMS and PrSM reflected the administration’s preference for long-range precision strikes instead of riskier air operations involving piloted aircraft.

A report published in March by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), cited by Reuters, said these missiles had already been used to strike targets inside Iran. The report also noted that PrSM inventories were limited because the missile is relatively new, although the US military has placed large procurement orders for 2027. Meanwhile, the Army has reportedly said that ATACMS production is being phased out in favour of the PrSM.

Defensive missile inventories also under pressure

Reuters reported that military officials have also warned President Trump in recent weeks about declining stocks of defensive weapons, particularly Patriot missile interceptors, which are used to counter ballistic missile threats.

Several media reports last week suggested Trump decided against launching another major offensive against Iran after advisers warned about shrinking weapons inventories. However, a US official disputed that and reportedly told Reuters that the decision was influenced by pressure from Gulf states.

The ongoing conflict has also intensified debate in Washington over the President’s authority to continue military operations against Iran without congressional authorisation. Reuters noted that no declaration of war or authorisation for the use of military force has been submitted to Congress.

Patriot, THAAD and Tomahawk stocks decline

A CSIS report released last week estimated that between February and July, around 65 per cent of US Patriot interceptor missiles had been used, while THAAD interceptor stockpiles had fallen by at least 38 per cent compared to levels at the beginning of the conflict.

Although Reuters said it had not independently reviewed the internal supply figures, two sources confirmed the organization that the CSIS estimates broadly matched government data.

The report further cited a source who said the US has used slightly less than half of its global stockpile of Tomahawk cruise missiles since the war began; however, this too was not independently verified by Reuters.

Tomahawk missiles, launched primarily from Navy destroyers, cruisers and submarines, remain one of the US military’s principal long-range strike weapons against heavily defended targets.