US-Israel-Iran War News Live Updates: Trump claims Iran has agreed ‘never’ to have a nuclear weapon
US Israel Iran War Live: Oil prices nudged back above $100 a barrel on Tuesday, up nearly 40 per cent since the war began, as fresh Israeli airstrikes battered Iran and Iranian missiles targeted Tel Aviv and Gulf states, dimming hopes of an imminent end to the four-week-old conflict. The price rise came despite talk of negotiations briefly driving down Brent crude earlier in the day.
Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced Islamabad was “ready and honoured” to host “meaningful and conclusive talks” between the US and Iran, with CNN reporting that Pakistan’s ISI chief Lt Gen Asim Malik is in direct contact with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
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The US has agreed “in principle” to talks in Pakistan, according to three Pakistani officials, though mediators are still working to convince Iran.
What are Trump’s five war objectives? | Operation Epic Fury — full explainer
Modi speaks to Trump; Indian LPG carriers cross Hormuz
Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke to President Trump on Tuesday, discussing the importance of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, US envoy to India Sergio Gor confirmed. Separately, two Indian LPG carriers, Jag Vasant and Pine Gas, successfully transited the Strait carrying 92,612 MT of LPG, with 60 Indian seafarers onboard, heading to India to bolster domestic energy supplies.
Strait of Hormuz explained | Indians in Gulf
Tel Aviv hit by 100kg warhead; Lebanon expels Iran ambassador
A missile carrying a 100-kilogram warhead struck a Tel Aviv street, blowing out apartment windows and injuring four. Israel carried out extensive strikes on Iranian production sites, with massive blasts reported in northern Tehran and the city centre. In a dramatic diplomatic development, Lebanon declared Iran’s ambassador persona non grata, ordering him to leave by Sunday, the latest sign of deteriorating Iran-Lebanon relations as Israeli strikes have killed over 1,000 people and displaced more than one million in Lebanon.
Estimated US War Spend Since Conflict Began $120,000,000,000 ↑ Ticking in real-time · Est. $2,500/sec burn rate · Based on RAND Corp Iraq-war pace model · Baseline: $120B Year-1 floor
US DoD Budget FY25 $895B USASpending.gov · Live
World GDP $105T World Bank · Latest yr
India GDP $3.6T World Bank · Latest yr
5yr War Cost Est. $1–4T RAND · Stimson
Filter:
US DoD FY2025 Budget USASpending.gov
$895B
Iraq + Afghan Wars Total (20yr) US Dept of Defense
$2.2T
Annual Ops Cost — Year 1 RAND Corporation
$50–100B
5-Year Cost: Base Scenario RAND / CBO Models
~$500B
5-Year Cost: Full Escalation Stimson Center
$1T–$4T
World GDP (Latest Year) World Bank Open API
$105T
US GDP (Latest Year) World Bank Open API
$27T
Hormuz: Share of Global Oil US Energy Info. Admin.
20–21%
Oil Price Shock if Hormuz Blocked IEA Energy Security Report
+$40–80/bbl
Global GDP at Risk (extreme shock) IMF World Economic Outlook
−1.5–3%
Global Inflation Surge IMF / Brookings Institution
+2–4pp
India GDP (Latest Year) World Bank Open API
$3.6T
India Oil Import Dependence IEA / Min. of Petroleum
85%
Annual Oil Import Bill Ministry of Petroleum, India
~$140B
Extra War Oil Cost (Year 1) RBI / World Bank India
+$30–50B
India GDP Impact — Oil Stress RBI Energy Stress Model
−0.5–1%
Gulf Remittances at Risk RBI Annual Report 2024
~$40B
Live — Gov API
Fact — verified
Projected — research model
Scenario — extreme case
Live APIs (no key required): USASpending.gov (US DoD FY2025 budget) · World Bank Open Data (GDP — World, US, India). Research: RAND Corp · IMF WEO · IEA · EIA Hormuz Brief · Stimson Center · Brookings · RBI Annual Report 2024. War counter: editorial simulation at RAND Iraq-war burn rate ($2,500/sec).
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The Indian Express Global Desk remains committed to rigorous verification. Follow our live blog below for real-time tracking of Operation Epic Fury, regional airspace status, and diplomatic efforts to contain the escalation.
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