India’s birth rate has fallen below replacement.

Among those most educated, India’s birth rate fell below replacement many years ago. https://t.co/RsWf0PK6wx

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 6, 2026

The comments come amid growing debate over India’s demographic transition as fertility rates continue to decline across several states.

India’s fertility rate below replacement level

According to the 2025 State of World Population report released by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), India’s total fertility rate has fallen to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman required to maintain a stable population.

The report projected that India’s population, currently estimated at around 1.46 billion, could peak at nearly 1.7 billion in the coming decades before beginning to decline.

However, fertility trends remain uneven across the country.

States such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh continue to report relatively high fertility rates, while southern states, including Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh, have remained below replacement level for years. Delhi’s fertility rate is estimated to be around 1.2.

What the UNFPA report said

While Musk amplified concerns over falling birth rates, the UNFPA report highlighted a different issue.

Titled “The Real Fertility Crisis,” the report said many women still do not have full control over reproductive choices. The survey, conducted across 14 countries, found that one in five Indian women had more children than they intended, while many reported pressure to continue unwanted pregnancies.

The report argued that the issue was not simply about women having fewer children, but about whether they were able to make reproductive choices freely.

Musk’s repeated warnings on population decline

Musk has repeatedly warned about what he calls a global “population collapse.” In previous statements, he described declining birth rates as one of the biggest threats facing civilisation and urged people to have more children.

The Tesla and SpaceX chief has made similar comments about countries including Japan, South Korea and the United States.

Why falling fertility matters for India

Experts say India’s key challenge may not be population decline itself, but the gradual shrinking of its demographic dividend.

India currently has one of the world’s largest young populations, which has helped fuel economic growth and labour-force expansion over the last two decades. Economists warn that a sustained decline in fertility could eventually slow workforce growth and increase pressure from an ageing population.

There was no immediate response from the Indian government to Musk’s remarks.