US Israel Iran War Live: Oil prices nudged back above $100 a barrel on Tuesday, up nearly 40 per cent since the war began, as fresh Israeli airstrikes battered Iran and Iranian missiles targeted Tel Aviv and Gulf states, dimming hopes of an imminent end to the four-week-old conflict. The price rise came despite talk of negotiations briefly driving down Brent crude earlier in the day.

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced Islamabad was “ready and honoured” to host “meaningful and conclusive talks” between the US and Iran, with CNN reporting that Pakistan’s ISI chief Lt Gen Asim Malik is in direct contact with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

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The US has agreed “in principle” to talks in Pakistan, according to three Pakistani officials, though mediators are still working to convince Iran.

What are Trump’s five war objectives? | Operation Epic Fury — full explainer

Modi speaks to Trump; Indian LPG carriers cross Hormuz

Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke to President Trump on Tuesday, discussing the importance of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, US envoy to India Sergio Gor confirmed. Separately, two Indian LPG carriers, Jag Vasant and Pine Gas, successfully transited the Strait carrying 92,612 MT of LPG, with 60 Indian seafarers onboard, heading to India to bolster domestic energy supplies.

Strait of Hormuz explained | Indians in Gulf

Tel Aviv hit by 100kg warhead; Lebanon expels Iran ambassador

A missile carrying a 100-kilogram warhead struck a Tel Aviv street, blowing out apartment windows and injuring four. Israel carried out extensive strikes on Iranian production sites, with massive blasts reported in northern Tehran and the city centre. In a dramatic diplomatic development, Lebanon declared Iran’s ambassador persona non grata, ordering him to leave by Sunday, the latest sign of deteriorating Iran-Lebanon relations as Israeli strikes have killed over 1,000 people and displaced more than one million in Lebanon.

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Estimated US War Spend Since Conflict Began $120,000,000,000 ↑ Ticking in real-time · Est. $2,500/sec burn rate · Based on RAND Corp Iraq-war pace model · Baseline: $120B Year-1 floor

US DoD Budget FY25 $895B USASpending.gov · Live

World GDP $105T World Bank · Latest yr

India GDP $3.6T World Bank · Latest yr

5yr War Cost Est. $1–4T RAND · Stimson

Filter:

US Military & War Expenditure

Live

US DoD FY2025 Budget USASpending.gov

$895B

Fact

Iraq + Afghan Wars Total (20yr) US Dept of Defense

$2.2T

RAND

Annual Ops Cost — Year 1 RAND Corporation

$50–100B

CBO

5-Year Cost: Base Scenario RAND / CBO Models

~$500B

Scenario

5-Year Cost: Full Escalation Stimson Center

$1T–$4T

Global Economic Exposure

Live

World GDP (Latest Year) World Bank Open API

$105T

Live

US GDP (Latest Year) World Bank Open API

$27T

EIA

Hormuz: Share of Global Oil US Energy Info. Admin.

20–21%

IEA

Oil Price Shock if Hormuz Blocked IEA Energy Security Report

+$40–80/bbl

IMF

Global GDP at Risk (extreme shock) IMF World Economic Outlook

−1.5–3%

IMF

Global Inflation Surge IMF / Brookings Institution

+2–4pp

India: Direct Economic Exposure

Live

India GDP (Latest Year) World Bank Open API

$3.6T

IEA

India Oil Import Dependence IEA / Min. of Petroleum

85%

Fact

Annual Oil Import Bill Ministry of Petroleum, India

~$140B

RBI

Extra War Oil Cost (Year 1) RBI / World Bank India

+$30–50B

RBI

India GDP Impact — Oil Stress RBI Energy Stress Model

−0.5–1%

RBI

Gulf Remittances at Risk RBI Annual Report 2024

~$40B

Live — Gov API

Fact — verified

Projected — research model

Scenario — extreme case

Live APIs (no key required): USASpending.gov (US DoD FY2025 budget) · World Bank Open Data (GDP — World, US, India). Research: RAND Corp · IMF WEO · IEA · EIA Hormuz Brief · Stimson Center · Brookings · RBI Annual Report 2024. War counter: editorial simulation at RAND Iraq-war burn rate ($2,500/sec).

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