The Strait of Hormuz carried about one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments before the Iran war, making the disruption a major concern for energy markets. Oil prices rose to three-week highs on Wednesday as uncertainty over shipping persisted, news agency Reuters reported.

US claims it controls Hormuz. Does it?

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that Washington has taken control of the waterway. Trump said on Monday that the US had “total control” of the Strait of Hormuz, a claim he repeated despite continued attacks on shipping and oil flows remaining well below pre-war levels.

The latest shipping data complicates that assertion. While US naval forces have been patrolling the waterway and offering protection to vessels attempting to transit, the number of ships actually crossing remains limited.

CNN, citing Kpler analysis, reported that more than 80 per cent of liquid-cargo transits over the previous two weeks had either used the Omani side of the strait or were “dark” transits that were likely taking the same route. The Omani route is a UN-authorised shipping channel that Iran has opposed.

“It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait,” Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, told CNN.

That represents a significant shift from a month earlier, when Kpler recorded virtually no traffic through the Omani route.

Why are ships avoiding Iran’s route?

Iran has declared the strait to be under its control and has attacked vessels attempting to use the northern coast of Oman, according to CNN’s analysis. Despite the risks, more ships have recently been using the Omani side, with some relying on US naval protection.

The shift has also affected Iran’s ability to collect fees from vessels passing through the waterway. CNN reported that Iran had previously sought to charge tolls on shipping, but the reduction in traffic through its preferred route has made that more difficult.

At the same time, some Gulf states are finding ways to move their oil without relying entirely on the conventional route.

Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have chartered very large crude carriers (VLCCs) to move oil out of the Persian Gulf through Hormuz and transfer it to other tankers in the Gulf of Oman, the CNN report added.

Some of these vessels have switched off their transponders for extended periods to reduce the risk of being targeted. Such “dark” shipping is consequently harder for conventional tracking systems to monitor.

Middle East transits diverge#MarineTraffic data show a marked divergence in shipping activity across two key Middle East chokepoints on 18 August. Confirmed Strait of Hormuz crossings declined 17% from the previous day to 10, with six vessels exiting the MEG and four entering.… pic.twitter.com/rj4ez6zsK1

— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) August 19, 2026

But has Iran not lost all leverage?

The data does not mean the US has established full control of Hormuz. Iran continues to pose a threat to vessels attempting to cross the waterway, while the overall volume of shipping remains dramatically below pre-war levels.

Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer of Pickering Energy Partners, told CNN that Iran’s objective may be less about completely controlling the waterway and more about deterring ships from using routes it does not approve of.

“If their goal is to be ‘in charge,’ then I’d say they were never completely in control to start with,” Pickering said.

That distinction is important. The US may have made it harder for Iran to enforce its preferred shipping route, but the continued reduction in traffic means Washington cannot yet claim that normal freedom of navigation has been restored.

What happened to shipping through Hormuz?

Before the war, the strait handled roughly 20 per cent of global crude oil and LNG shipments. On Tuesday, however, Kpler recorded only six commodity-vessel crossings. The traffic included an empty VLCC entering via the Omani side, two other tankers and three vessels leaving the strait.

Two major Chinese shipping companies that previously carried about half of China’s Middle Eastern oil imports have also kept their tankers away from Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb since late July, according to tanker tracker Vortexa and a ship broker cited by Reuters.

That has raised concerns for the world’s biggest oil importer and added pressure to global energy markets.

The temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran expired on Monday without a broader agreement, adding to uncertainty over the future of maritime traffic.

Oman emerges as key player

The dispute has also placed Oman at the centre of efforts to restore shipping through the strait. Oman and Iran have been holding discussions over the safety and management of navigation through Hormuz. Earlier agreements between the two countries committed them to ensuring safe passage and continued consultations over the future management of the waterway.

The talks have angered Trump, who has threatened military action against Oman if it interferes with US efforts involving Iran, according to regional officials cited by Associated Press.

Reporter: This morning you said you would bomb the shit out of Oman if they got in the way.

Trump: I don’t think they behave very well, but we handle them. pic.twitter.com/4s7UbxuhCg

— Clash Report (@clashreport) August 17, 2026

That creates a three-way contest over the future of Hormuz: Iran wants to retain influence over shipping, the US says it is providing security and protection, while Oman is trying to negotiate a framework for navigation.

Why this matters for India

The Strait of Hormuz matters significantly to India because any disruption to the flow of oil and gas through the waterway can push up crude prices, raise shipping costs and increase the country’s import bill. The uncertainty is already being felt in global markets. Brent crude rose to $91.79 a barrel on Wednesday, its highest level since July 30, while US crude also climbed to its highest level since late July.